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The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.
The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.
Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.
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Instead, the report recommended that advertising regulation be placed on a statutory footing under the Gambling Commission.
This would grant the regulator enhanced powers to proactively enforce rules and restrict problematic advertising channels effectively.
Gambling ads are currently monitored by ASA under the CAP 16.1 code. Just this week, Midnite received its third ASA ruling. The operator was told to remove a TikTok advertisement that featured a young-looking character.
How to play Fortune Rangers
Moving forward, history suggests that this month’s rate hike might not be the last. During hawkish periods, the FOMC has paused after an initial rate hike just once since the 1990s, per the Wall Street Journal. Over that period, the US Central Bank has typically lifted rates six to seven times throughout an upward cycle. Warsh has signalled optimism in the economy’s stability moving forward.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient, productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust.”
Following the decision, the odds of one additional rate hike this year jumped to 48% on Wednesday afternoon on Polymarket. The contract asks traders to predict whether the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate will hit 4.25% by the end of 2026. There is now a 21% chance that the Fed will stand pat for the remainder of year, with a slightly lower probability that the upper bound will reach at least 4.5%.
