High Striker

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Several factors weighed heavily on the decision to raise rates. The average nationwide gas price now is $4.36 compared to $3.18 a year ago, per AAA, and the average diesel price of $6.31 is a record. Brent crude oil has crested over $100 per barrel compared to about $68 a year ago. Inflation was 3.4% in August, compared to 2.9% last year. And US 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries have reached their highest rates in decades.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh assumed the top role in May, and the central bank held rates steady for all of Warsh’s first three meetings. The decision to stand pat at the start of Warsh’s tenure came despite increasing calls for a hike as inflation remains solidly above the Fed’s 2% target. Those calls became too loud to ignore, prompting the first rate hike since August 2023.

“The decision we made today was the right decision to deliver on the remit that Congress gave us to ensure stable prices… Some months ago I said we will deliver stable prices, today’s action is consistent with that,” Warsh said at the Fed press conference.

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The week will conclude with a matchup on Monday Night Football between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, the putative Super Bowl favourite. On Kalshi, the Rams had a 75% probability to defeat the Giants as of Wednesday afternoon.

“It’s going to be a great test for our team,” said Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart on Wednesday.

Matt is primarily responsible for long-form feature coverage on complex sports betting scandals. He also provides coverage on finance, M&A and other technological developments.

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The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.

The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.

Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.