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How to play Bison Battle
With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.
In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.
Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.
How to play Bison Battle
Below is the graph of 1-month rates from CNBC. They are about to cross the zero boundary.
When that happens, commodities prices are going to get completely unhinged. The cash on corporate balance sheets is going to start losing purchasing power very fast. And that will only encourage more dumping of it, and increase the positive feedback loop now already in place.
They can dump it for BTC, sure. But that’s not going to help at all. Why not? Because the value of BTC depends entirely on the U.S. dollar still being usable in a basic sense as a currency. If the dollar falls, so does BTC, because BTC is not fundamentally useful other than as a way of transferring dollars or other fiat currencies. If there is no value to transfer, there is no value to the transfer tool. Corporates are going to have to dump extra paper currency for gold, quickly, yesterday, or they are going to lose everything. Same for individuals. Time is almost out now, I’m sorry to say. Good luck out there, and if you want a guide during these crazy times of monetary chaos, follow me on SeekingAlpha, and sign up for a free trial at The End Game Investor.
About Bison Battle
“A proceeding aimed at impairing a single creditor is not the collective administration Chapter 15 contemplates, and the mismatch is not a technicality. It is part of the Debtors’ bad faith effort to forum shop for the most advantageous tool to use against their litigation adversary,” Skillz attorneys alleged.
The Debtors here deployed an insolvency statute against the one creditor whose judgment they wished to defer and compromise, left every ordinary-course creditor untouched, preserved their own equity, and sought releases for the insiders who directed the conduct that produced the judgment—then asked this Court to treat that machinery as proof that their affairs are centered in Israel,” the petition continued.
“The Court should refuse the relief requested by … because it is manifestly contrary to the public policy of the United States based on the Debtors’ well-documented and pervasive bad faith conduct,” the petition said. “The Debtors are using the Israeli Action—a limited action which lacks many of the core characteristics of a collective insolvency proceeding—as a strategic tool to evade responsibility for their deceptive conduct.”
