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Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.
“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.
It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.
About Bermuda Triangle
The mystery surrounding who won the $1.04 billion Powerball jackpot drawn on Aug. 12, 2026, has been solved—sort of. The Illinois Lottery announced that the winner came forward this week to claim the prize but chose to remain anonymous.
The big Powerball winner took advantage of Section 7.2 of the Illinois Lottery Law, which governs disclosure rules regarding winners’ identities.
Under Section 7.2, a winner of a prize of $250,000 or more can request to keep their name and municipality of residence confidential while completing their Illinois Lottery Winner Claim Form.
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Citizens gaming analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a 16 Sept. note that with the NFL season now under way: “Genius should benefit from increased spending across both traditional sports betting and the emerging prediction market industry.”
Added Bender: Genius’ recent deals with Kalshi and Polymarket “have provided an incremental positive catalyst for [Legend founder] Mr Kisberg and team”.
“We think investors will be looking for signs that Genius can leverage Legend’s relationship to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding sports betting and prediction market opportunity,” he aded in a note this week.