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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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The AiA has urged stakeholders of Africa’s gambling sector to collaborate, something the association said will prove increasingly important as the continent’s industry continues to develop.
The AiA has called for collaboration in the form of strengthening cooperation, sharing good practices and maintaining safer gambling at the forefront of policy agenda.
Additionally, the Africa Safer Gambling Week will emphasise the importance of channelisation into legal offerings, with the AiA warning the black market often neglects player protection.
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Polymarket and other prediction markets that ventured into sports trading last year maintain that they’re financial platforms governed by federal law.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) agrees, continuing to defend its claimed “exclusive jurisdiction” over sports prediction markets in federal and state courts across the nation.
The legal wrangling extends to Michigan, where Attorney General Dana Nessel has rejected Polymarket and the CFTC’s arguments that the Michigan Gaming Control Board has no regulatory authority over prediction markets, even the ones allowing traders to buy and sell shares of sports outcomes.
